Herbert Simon, The Challenger for 'Rational Decision-Making" (1916~2001)
Bounded rationality
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In game theory, bounded rationality is a concept based on the fact that rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make decisions. This contrasts with the concept of rationality as optimization.[1] Another way to look at bounded rationality is that, because decision-makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their rationality only after having greatly simplified the choices available. Thus the decision-maker is a satisficer, one seeking a satisfactory solution rather than the optimal one.[2]
Some models of human behavior in the social sciences assume that humans can be reasonably approximated or described as "rational" entities (see for example rational choice theory). Many economics models assume that people are on average rational, and can in large enough quantities be approximated to act according to their preferences. The concept of bounded rationality revises this assumption to account for the fact that perfectly rational decisions are often not feasible in practice due to the finite computational resources available for making them.
[edit] Models of bounded rationality
The term is thought to have been coined by Herbert Simon. In Models of Man, Simon points out that most people are only partly rational, and are in fact emotional/irrational in the remaining part of their actions. In another work, he states "boundedly rational agents experience limits in formulating and solving complex problems and in processing (receiving, storing, retrieving, transmitting) information" (Williamson, p. 553, citing Simon). Simon describes a number of dimensions along which "classical" models of rationality can be made somewhat more realistic, while sticking within the vein of fairly rigorous formalization. These include:
- limiting what sorts of utility functions there might be.
- recognizing the costs of gathering and processing information.
- the possibility of having a "vector" or "multi-valued" utility function.
Simon suggests that economic agents employ the use of heuristics to make decisions rather than a strict rigid rule of optimization. They do this because of the complexity of the situation, and their inability to process and compute the expected utility of every alternative action. Deliberation costs might be high and there are often other, concurrent economic activities also requiring decisions.
Daniel Kahneman proposes bounded rationality as a model to overcome some of the limitations of the rational-agent models in economic literature.
As decision makers have to make decisions about how and when to decide, Ariel Rubinstein proposed to model bounded rationality by explicitly specifying decision-making procedures. This puts the study of decision procedures on the research agenda.
Gerd Gigerenzer argues that most decision theorists who have discussed bounded rationality have not really followed Simon's ideas about it. Rather, they have either considered how people's decisions might be made sub-optimal by the limitations of human rationality, or have constructed elaborate optimising models of how people might cope with their inability to optimize. Gigerenzer instead proposes to examine simple alternatives to a full rationality analysis as a mechanism for decision making, and he and his colleagues have shown that such simple heuristics frequently lead to better decisions than the theoretically optimal procedure.
From a computational point of view, decision procedures can be encoded in algorithms and heuristics. Edward Tsang argues that the effective rationality of an agent is determined by its computational intelligence. Everything else being equal, an agent that has better algorithms and heuristics could make "more rational" (more optimal) decisions than one that has poorer heuristics and algorithms.
[edit] References
- Jon Elster (1983). Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
- Gigerenzer, G. & Selten, R. (2002). Bounded Rationality.Cambridge: The MIT Press; reprint edition. ISBN 0-262-57164-1
- Hayek, F.A (1948) Individualism and Economic order
- Kahneman, Daniel (2003). Maps of bounded rationality: psychology for behavioral economics. The American Economic Review. 93(5). pp. 1449–1475
- March, James G. (1994). A Primer on Decision Making: How Decisions Happen. New York: The Free Press.
- Rubinstein, A. (1998). Modeling bounded rationality, MIT Press.
- Simon, Herbert (1957). "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice", in Models of Man, Social and Rational: Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting. New York: Wiley.
- Simon, Herbert (1990). A mechanism for social selection and successful altruism, Science 250 (4988): 1665-1668.
- Simon, Herbert (1991). Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning, Organization Science 2(1): 125-134.
- Tisdell, Clem (1996). Bounded Rationality and Economic Evolution: A Contribution to Decision Making, Economics, and Management. Cheltenham, UK; Brookfield, Vt.: Edward Elgar.
- Tsang, E.P.K. (2008). Computational intelligence determines effective rationality, International Journal on Automation and Control, Vol.5, No.1, 63-66.
- Williamson, Oliver (1981). The economies of organization: the transaction cost approach. American Journal of Sociology 87
(3): 548-577.
- ^ Gigerenzer, Gerd; Selten, Reinhard (2002). Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox. MIT Press. ISBN 0262571641. http://books.google.com/books?id=dVMq5UoYS3YC&dq=%22bounded+rationality%22&printsec=frontcover&source=bl&ots=pZ2sZOGH1X&sig=J4icGbo0Wz8MXC3JcX5cHNId298&hl=en&ei=_qziScv-PKa-tAOL9ui0CQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5#PPA4,M1.
- ^ "Bounded rationality: Definition from Answers.com". Answers Corporation. http://www.answers.com/topic/bounded-rationality. Retrieved 2009-04-12.
Bounded Rationality
Explanations > Theories > Bounded Rationality
Description | Example | So what? | See also | References
Description
We are, to some extent, rational beings in that we will try to logically understand things and make sensible choices.
However, the world is large and complex, and we do not have the capacity to understand everything. We also have a limited time in which to make decisions. We are also limited by the schemas we have and other decisional limitations.
As a result, our decisions are not fully thought through and we can only be rational within limits such as time and cognitive capability. Herbert Simon indicated that there were thus two major causes of bounded rationality:
- Limitations of the human mind
- The structure within which the mind operates
This impacts decision models that assume us to be fully rational. For example when calculating expected utility, you may be surprised to find that people do not make the best choices.
Example
I choose a new hi-fi system based on reading a few magazines and listening to several friends. When the sales person offers me a better bargain, I still turn it down.
So what?
Using it
Either play within the bounds of rationality by giving the other person few choices and limited criteria, or break their existing bounds by showing how these are ineffective (then help them set up cognitive camp elsewhere).
Defending
When you make a decision, pause to reflect whether what seems rational is adequate. As necessary, test your decision with other people. Do not be hurried into a decision by others.
See also
References
Savage (1954), Newell and Simon (1972), Simon (1982)
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